Merchant Shortlist: Zero-sales worked examples
Created 2026-09-14.

This is calculated scenario data, not observed merchant data or a conversion benchmark.
Columns: sessions = assumed independent trials; assumed_order_rate_percent = assumed percent chance of an order per trial; zero_orders_probability = (1 - rate/100)^sessions as a fraction from 0 to 1, rounded to 10 decimal places.
Example: 100 sessions at an assumed 1% rate gives 0.3660323413, or about 36.6%.
Assumes a fixed probability and independent trials. Real sessions can include repeat people, bots, and different audiences. This does not identify faults or estimate your true rate.
Formula reference: https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda366i.htm
You may share and adapt these original calculated examples. Credit appreciated, not required. Keep the assumptions with the numbers.